Production trend for Tesla MX

Last updated 03-Mar-2024

Using the factory gate dates for cars in our database, we can plot the factory production rates over time. The data lags slightly as Tesla need to list a car with a valid date and VIN to create a data point which usually means cars need to appear in CPO/Used inventory to appear on the chart. That said, it's typically there's usually only a small lag before we see cars with recent production dates.

Below the chart we explain each of the lines were there is more than one, which factory they come from, and notably changes in rate.

Tesla Model 3 Production

Fremont, China

Tesla Model Y Production

Fremont, China, Berlin and Texas

You can select and deselect individual locations by clicking on their name.

All Model X production has been from Fremont. For many years Tesla did not build in strict VIN order and as a result the line appears quite thick. A step change in production rate in May/June 2019 can be seen.

Production of the first iteration ended in Dec 2020 and there was no production in 2021. The facelift model started production in January 2021.

Our best guess at this time is HW4 production started around VIN 380000, although the cutover is not clean. We hace seen HW4 cars with factory dates as early as 15 December 2022 and HW3 cars still being produced as late as 13 January 2023

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