Tesla Model Y Juniper
Last updated 18-Sep-2024
The Tesla Model Y Juniper is expected to be announced in Q4 2024 and on sale shortly afterwards as a 2025 model year car. We share what we know and what you can expect.
The original Model Y was launched in 2020 and has become the top selling car in the Tesla lineup and made in numerous factories including two in the US, Germany and China. The design inherited and learnt from the Model 3 with a more resolved interior and some engineering enhancements.
The current Model Y is not without it's issues. Primarily these relate to the suspension which many found too hard and unsophisticated. It allowed noise ingress into the cabin and didn't like poor road surfaces at all. Tesla altered the suspension a number of times by adjusting the springs and dampers, but the problem has never been completely eradicated.
Technical updates
There have been rumours that the Juniper Model Y will have a significantly increased range as a result of a much larger battery. We don't believe this will be the case as with the expected refinement upgrades it would place too much pressure on the Model X for that model to survive. We also think it would increase the price.
We therefore expect the battery and motors to be largely unchanged and fall inline with the Model 3 highland, including the Performance model getting the rear motor from the M3 Highland Performance.
Range will improve slightly due to changes in tyres and tweaks to the aerodynamics, although we don't expect this to be significant.
The 0-60 and top speed will otherwise both fall on the non performance models, all very remininecent of the Model 3 Highland updates.
The one big change we expect to see is Tesla bringing Vehicle to Load capability so that powered devices can be plugged in. This is a capability where Tesla is currently looking behind the competition.
Visual and Interior updates
There is little doubt that the car will inherit the new design language that first appeared in the refreshed Model S and Model X, and then appeared in the M3 Highland. Notably this will include sleaker headlights, Tesla lettering on the back rather than the T logo, and in the interior the introduction of more ambient lighting. It's also expected that the car will lose the stalks and move to steering mounted controls such as indicators, just like the other models. We can also expect a rear screen.
The introduction of ventilated seats is expected, and like the previous generation cars, we expect the Model 3 Highland front seats to be used in the Model Y, only raised up higher, including the Performance sports seats.
Sound deadening and a general improvement in design of the car can also be expected.
Some have predicted that air suspension will be coming, but we do not believe that will be the case. Tesla will want to preserve the differential to the Model X and Model S, and while an adaptive setup may be deployed in the Perfomance model, Tesla will be want to preserve the price point.
We suspect Tesla will continue the 7 seat option although this has never been that popular.
Drivers Perspective
As we've touched upon, the car is likely to be a little slower than the previous model, except for the performance model which will be broadly the same. The car performance is currently limited by the battery, something we see in the performance difference between US built cars and those from other factories.
The removal of the stalks will be a contentious decision and one that would only be plausible if Tesla adopted drive by wire, but we suspect the next car to get this will be the Roadster 2 when it finally launches. As such this will almost certainly put some buyers off. Why Tesla insist on this policy is beyond us.
Otherwise we can expect more of the same, just with a degree of enhanced refinement in cabin noise and ride.
Technology and Autopilot
You do not need to look much further than the Model 3 Highland to see the changes that are coming.
The autopilot hardware will be HW4 and there will be no additional cameras. BLE will be enabled to cater for the features such as automatic trunk opening.
Price and Availability
Tesla is currently under pressure to sell cars with level if not falling global volumes when comparing like for like quarters. Whilst the improvements should help boost sales, the Model 3 Highland did not see a significant shift in demand.
Once the model is launched, we suspect Tesla will move more quickly to update all factories. Sales of the outgoing model are much harder when news and reviews of the improvements start to emerge, and at what we expect to be near identical prices.
We expect the first deliveries to be in Q1 2025. The outgoing model will however be a bargain buy with significant offers to help shift stock. In some countries Tesla are leasing some existing inventory at what appears to be well below market rates.
Conclusion
As Teslas best selling model there is a lot of anticipation and wild rumour about the new model, all without substance. But Tesla almost always deliver below these rumoured changes and we expect the same to occur here.
We believe much of what happened to the Model 3 Highland will be implemented on the Juniper Model Y, and little truly new. That will still result in a credible uplift in the car worthy of a relaunch, but it will not be an all new model. Teslas cars in some respects are becoming old, the Model S and Model X can trace elements back as far as 2012, and both the Model 3 and Model Y to the launch of the Model 3 in 2017, albeit with constant incremental change. There has not been a meaningful change in battery since the LFP battery was introduced in 2020, and the motors are still very similar, if not the same, as the hairpin winding changes around the same time. There is the adage that if it's not broken, don't fix it, but with the competition has increasingly moved forward, including having 800v architecture, and more fundamental developments, it would be good for Tesla to be a little bolder and invest more in the platform rather than their heavy push on self driving tech which much of the world won’t benefit from in the foreseeable future..
