Tesla Model Y Juniper
Last updated 13-Dec-2024
The Tesla Model Y Juniper was expected to be announced in Q4 2024 and on sale shortly afterwards as a 2025 model year car, however we are now mid December and there is still no real news. Rumours have been circulating about the Roadster 2 which was also thought to be arriving around the end of the year after a 6 year wait, and the Model Q, the low cost alternative which was originally thought to be the Model 2, has been in the news. But nothing on the Juniper Model Y. However, we share what we know and what you can expect.
The original Model Y was launched in 2020 and has become the top selling car in the Tesla lineup and made in numerous factories including two in the US, Germany and China. The design inherited and learnt from the Model 3 with a more resolved interior and some engineering enhancements.
The current Model Y is not without it's issues. Primarily these relate to the suspension which many found too hard and unsophisticated. It allowed noise ingress into the cabin and didn't like poor road surfaces at all. Tesla a;tered the suspension a number of times by adjusting the springs and dampers, but the problem has never been completely eradicated.
Technical updates
There have been rumours that the Juniper Model Y will have a significantly increased range as a result of a much larger battery. We don't believe this will be the case as with the expected refinement upgrades it would place too much pressure on the Model X for that model to survive. We also think it would increase the price and something that Tesla need to keep low.
We therefore expect the battery and motors to be largely unchanged and fall inline with the Model 3 Highland, including the Performance model which would get the same rear motor from the M3 Highland Performance.
Range will improve slightly due to changes in tyres and tweaks to the aerodynamics, although we don't expect this to be significant.
The 0-60 and top speed will otherwise both fall on the non performance models, all very remininecent of the Model 3 Highland updates.
The one big change we expect to see is Tesla bringing Vehicle to Load capability so that powered devices can be plugged in. This is a capability where Tesla is currently looking behind the competition and would use technology first released in the Cybertruck.
Visual and Interior updates
There is little doubt that the car will inherit the new design language that first appeared in the refreshed Model S and Model X, and then appeared in the M3 Highland. Notably this will include sleaker headlights, Tesla lettering on the back rather than the T logo, and it's possible that a rear light bar will appear, although this could be more of a decorative strip than offering any great functionality like some of the competitors. Many of the leaked pictures which were said to be the Juniper may have been of the prototype Robotaxi or development cars for the Model Q, so we are not as confident as others that will make an appearance. Tesla have always been keen to follow a house style and this would be a significant departure. The interior will see the introduction of more ambient lighting and a carry over of the Highland changes. It's also expected that the car will lose the stalks and move to steering mounted controls such as indicators, just like the other models. We can also expect a rear screen.
The introduction of ventilated seats is expected, and like the previous generation cars, we expect the Model 3 Highland front seats to be used in the Model Y, only raised up higher, including the Performance sports seats.
Sound deadening and a general improvement in design of the car can also be expected.
Some have predicted that air suspension will be coming, but we do not believe that will be the case. Tesla will want to preserve the differential to the Model X and Model S, and while an adaptive setup may be deployed in the Perfomance model, Tesla will also want to preserve the price point.
We suspect Tesla will continue the 7 seat option although this has never been that popular.
Drivers Perspective
As we've touched upon, the car is likely to be a little slower than the previous model, except for the performance model which will be broadly the same. The car performance is currently limited by the battery, something we see in the performance difference between US built cars and those from other factories.
The removal of the stalks will be a contentious decision and one that would only be plausible if Tesla adopted drive by wire, but we suspect the next car to get this will be the Roadster 2 when it finally launches. As such this will almost certainly put some buyers off. Why Tesla insist on this policy is beyond us.
We have already seen changes in Model Y line up with the Standard Range RWD disappearing in some markets and a relatively new Long Range RWD car being available more consistently, although it has been seem before. If the Model Q comes to fruition, and this is a hatch back car, then we may see some movement towards the Model Y becoming more premium and the Model Q sitting lower inthe range, at a lower price point and with a shorter range. There is not a lot of scope to cut costs on a Model Q compared to the Model 3 or Model Y, the switch to a metal roof is a possibility, but other than a smaller and cheaper battery, it's hard to see what svings can be made given the already streamlined manufacturing process and the news they would be sharing the production line. Our hunch is therefore the Standard Range M3 and MY cars will merge into a single lower cost entry point, and the M3 and MY will become Long Range only versions, which could open the door to a later longer range car. The market is however generally happy with EPA ranges in the 300-400 mile region which is where the Long Range cars currently sit.
Otherwise we can expect more of the same, just with a degree of enhanced refinement in cabin noise and ride.
Technology and Autopilot
You do not need to look much further than the Model 3 Highland to see the changes that are coming.
The autopilot hardware will be HW4, or IA4 as Tesla now want to call it, and there will be no additional cameras. BLE will be enabled to cater for the features such as automatic trunk opening.
Price and Availability
Tesla is currently under pressure to sell cars with level if not falling global volumes when comparing like for like quarters. Whilst the improvements should help boost sales, the Model 3 Highland did not see a significant shift in demand. Availability will therefore be good from very early into the production lifecycle. We suspect that the announcement will coincide the announcement of the Model Q, and effectively a rejig of the line up.
Once the model is launched, we suspect Tesla will move more quickly to update all factories. Sales of the outgoing model are already suffering fromt he anticipated announcement with a years free supercharginging amongst other incentives to shift the large inventory. As stock is even harder to shift after an announcement, we strongly suspect nothing will be said until the end of year deliverines have been maximised.
Price wise, unless Tesla do something dramatic such as effectively split the market with the Model Q replacing the entry level Model Y and pushing the Model Y more upmarket, we can expect prices to be broadly the same as now. There is increasing competition in the market, and whilst Tesla still has a massive market lead in the US, in other regions things are becoming much closer. The premium end of the market has the likes of the Porsche Macan EV.
We now expect the first deliveries to be in late Q1 2025, and probably Q2.
Conclusion
As Tesla's best selling model there is a lot of anticipation and rumour about the new model. But Tesla almost always deliver below the rumoured changes and we expect the same to occur here. We saw it with the Highland where there was much talk of front cameras, and even the Roadster 2 details seem to have been quietly scaled back from the talk of rocket boosters.
We therefore believe much of what happened to the Model 3 Highland will be implemented on the Juniper Model Y, and with little truly new. Tesla's focus is very much on Self Driving. While there has been some potential leaks on the Model Q/2 and the Roadster 2, we suspect these will largely just split the Tesla market rather than offer significant increases in volume. The changes will still result in a credible uplift in the car worthy of a relaunch, but it will not be an all new model, and would help against the many new cars coming to market. Tesla cars in some respects are becoming old, the Model S and Model X can trace elements back as far as 2012, and both the Model 3 and Model Y underpinnings date back to the launch of the Model 3 in 2017. There has not been a meaningful change in battery since the LFP battery was introduced in 2020 which is seemingly been phased out in some places, and the motors are still very similar, if not the same, as the hairpin windiong changes around the same time. There is the adage that if it's not broken, don't fix it, but with the competition increasingly having 800v architecture and more fundemental developments, it would be good for Tesla to be bolder.
