Production trend for Tesla M3

Last updated 01-Feb-2023

Using the factory gate dates for cars in our database, we can plot the factory production rates over time. The data lags slightly as Tesla need to list a car with a valid date and VIN to create a data point which usually means cars need to appear in CPO/Used inventory to appear on the chart. That said, it's typically there's usually only a small lag before we see cars with recent production dates.

Below the chart we explain each of the lines were there is more than one, which factory they come from, and notably changes in rate.

Tesla Model 3 Production

Fremont, China

Tesla Model Y Production

Fremont, China, Berlin and Texas

The colour coding is as follows: Fremont are Red, China are Blue, Berlin are Purple and Texas are Green.

Model 3 production has been done in 2 factories, Fremont and China.

The first scattered band until Mar 2020 is the Fremont production, the scattering untiul early 2020 clearly showing a a degree of randomness of the VIN allocations in procuction sequencing. You can also clearly see the struggle to ramp up production until late 2018. The line continues at a slower rate from March 2020 as a result of the introduction of Model Y production. In July 2021 the VIN number resets to zero and the Fremont production continues as the last of the 3 lines.

The line starting in January 2020 is the China production. You can also see the signs of the production ramp up although this was much quicker than Fremont. There is some tapering off in 2022 due to factory closures as a result of Covid. We should see in late 2022 a steeper line as a result of the changes made to the production which Tesla claim will boost production rates. Initially this is hard to see because of impacts from Covid on production rates.

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