Production trend for Tesla MS

Last updated 03-Mar-2024

Using the factory gate dates for cars in our database, we can plot the factory production rates over time. The data lags slightly as Tesla need to list a car with a valid date and VIN to create a data point which usually means cars need to appear in CPO/Used inventory to appear on the chart. That said, it's typically there's usually only a small lag before we see cars with recent production dates.

Below the chart we explain each of the lines were there is more than one, which factory they come from, and notably changes in rate.

Tesla Model 3 Production

Fremont, China

Tesla Model Y Production

Fremont, China, Berlin and Texas

You can select and deselect individual locations by clicking on their name.

All Model S production has been from Fremont. For many years Tesla did not build in strict VIN order and as a result the line appears quite thick, but the production rate has been pretty consistent over time.

While there have been a few breaks and interuptions, the break in May/June 2019 coincides with other events in the factory which allowed a ramp up of Model X production. Production of the pre 2021 facelift ended in Dec 2020.

There was a six month break in production in early 2021, after which production commenced of the 2021 facelift model.

Our best guess at this time is HW4 production started around VIN 505000, however the cut over does nopt appear to be clean, however the majority of HW3 seemed to stop by the end of 2022 and HW4 only from 20 January 2023. Tesla do occassionally have a rogue car where the VIN has an unusual factory gate, maybe the car was held back for remedial, and we have seen one such MS with HW3 and a factory gate of 27 Feb 2023, however Tesla must know this car is odd as it is being offered with FSD.

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