Tesla UK depreciation in 2018
Tesla has often been quoted as one of the lowest depreciating cars on the market however there is also evidence from sellers of poor trade in values and heavy first year depreciation. We decided to take a closer look.
Update: Before we dive into the detail of 2018, it's worth reflecting that 2019 has seen a large number of price changes, model tweaks and in Europe the launch of the Model 3. We've added to our conclusions at the end.
A word about our analysisThe market pricing of Teslas has been in a state of price change flux over the years, certainly in the UK in recent years there has been much change due to currency fluctuations, but there has also been a number of model and option changes that has made it difficult to make meaningful comparisons. As an example, in 2016/2017 there were a number of price rises and as a result the replacement, like for like vehicle often went up by a considerable amount, this helped considerably the depreciation figures. But the inclusion of options like the premium pack also meant later on, the same car became cheaper.
To cut through this, we've looked at our own data, taken from thousands of cars that were advertised for sale last year in the UK, and what the average price was for each model, variant and year each month.
This has given us some trend statistics, and like all statistics a degree of caution is needed when reading the data. Firstly:
- at the beginning of 2018 there would still be some new inventory 2017 cars in the data. This might artificially lift the average price at the beginning of the year, although comparisons between different 2017 models would still be valid.
- Secondly, car prices vary due to optional extras, mileage and even colour. If in one month the cars were all high mileage base spec and in another low mileage high spec, we would see a difference, but we feel the volumes and trends are sufficiently robust to be a good indicator of trend.
- Finally, we can only report advertised prices and of course thats no indication of sold price, but we'd expect it to be on a consistent ratio. As a side note, we include cars from multiple sellers including Tesla and independent retailers, we are the only place we know of that does this level of analysis
So what were our key findings?
- 2017 75D which fell 19% over the year compared to 6% for the 100D and 7% for the P100D. This is the UK market and the M3 hasn't landed yet so its unlikely the depreciation is due to a move to the M3 car. This may however explain why Tesla have decided to drop the 75D.
- Coincidently the 2016 cars actually gained over the year closing the gap on the new cars. Driven partly by new inventory 2017 cars being still being available at the start of the year, the gap between a 2016 and 2017 75D started the year at 30k and by the end of the year the gap had closed to only 8k.
- If we look at older cars, the few 2014 60 have gone up in value by 9%. As this is the entry level car, we believe the general increase in awareness of the company is attracting buyers and so there is support for simply the cheapest Teslas you can buy.
- The 2015 85 is similarly well supported, although somewhat surprisingly the 2015 85D has fallen by 10%, the data suggests by the end of the 2018, any premium for the dual motor version of the car had disappeared.
- The P cars all performed similarly with a 11% drop or thereabouts. 2016 numbers are slightly complicated by the facelift and the introduction of ludicrous mode which means for those particular cars we may not be comparing like for like.
Tesla MX analysisWe've not included the MX chart but the results are slightly different.
- A 2017 75D only fell by 4%
- A 2017 100D only fell by just 1%
- The P100D was a big faller with a drop of 20% across the year
- The P90D fell by a massive 25%. We suspect this is a very unloved version
- There is little in the way of volume from 2016 built cars however we've seen a 15% drop on the P90D and a 6% drop on the 90D.